Paid family leave and parental investments in infant health: Evidence from California.

This paper evaluates the effect of Paid Family Leave (PFL) on breastfeeding and immunizations- two critical parental investments in infant health - which we identify using California's 2004 PFL policy that ensured mothers up to six weeks of leave at a 55% wage replacement rate. We employ difference-in-difference and difference-in-difference-in-differences models for a large, representative sample of children (N = 314,532) born between 2000 and 2013 drawn from the restricted-use versions of the 2003-2014 National Immunization Surveys. Our most conservative estimates indicate that access to PFL is associated with at least a 15% increase in breastfeeding exclusively for at least six months. We find substantially large effects for disadvantaged mothers, adding to the existing evidence that access to state-sanctioned paid family leave might benefit children overall and disadvantaged children in particular.

Estimating Drug Involvement in Fatal Overdoses With Incomplete Information.

INTRODUCTION: Death certificates provide incomplete information on the specific drug categories involved in fatal overdoses. The accuracy of previously developed corrections for this and modifications to them was examined. Uncorrected mortality rates were compared with rates from the preferred correction models. METHODS: Data were obtained for the universe of 932,364 drug overdoses in the U.S. between 1999 and 2020, including 769,982 (82.6%) with a drug classification and 162,382 (17.4%) without, from the National Center for Health Statistics Multiple Cause of Death files. Opioid and cocaine involvement for unclassified overdoses were estimated using multiple approaches. Prediction accuracy was assessed as the mean absolute deviation between actual and estimated involvement for a test sample with known drug involvement. Corrected death rates from preferred models were compared with uncorrected rates. Analyses were conducted in 2022-2023. RESULTS: Previous regression-based corrections that controlled for decedent characteristics can be improved upon by adding state-fixed effects as covariates. Once this is done, supplementary controls for county characteristics or contributory causes of death do not materially improve prediction accuracy. Properly designed naïve models, which distribute unspecified drug deaths proportionately to specified deaths, often provide similar results and, for county-level analyses, supply the most accurate predictions. Uncorrected results substantially understate the levels of opioid and cocaine involvement and can either understate or overstate changes over time. CONCLUSIONS: Failing to correct for incomplete information on death certificates leads to inaccurate counts of deaths from specific categories of drugs, such as opioids. However, relatively simple corrections are available that substantially improve accuracy.

The Evolution of Excess Deaths in the United States During the First 2 Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Understanding consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic requires information on the excess mortality resulting from it. Multiple studies have examined excess deaths during the pandemic's initial stages, but how these have changed over time is unclear. National- and state-level death counts and population data from 2009 to 2022 were used in this analysis to evaluate excess fatalities from March 2020 to February 2021 and March 2021 to February 2022, with deaths from earlier years used to project baseline counts. The outcomes were total, group-specific, cause-specific, and age-by-cause excess fatalities, and numbers and percentages directly involving COVID-19. Excess deaths declined from 655,735 (95% confidence interval: 619,028, 691,980) during the first pandemic year to 586,505 (95% confidence interval: 532,823, 639,205) in the second. The reductions were particularly large for Hispanics, Blacks, Asians, seniors, and residents of states with high vaccination rates. Excess deaths increased from the first to second year for persons younger than 65 years and in low-vaccination states. Excess mortality from some diseases declined, but those from alcohol, drug, vehicle, and homicide causes likely increased between the first and second pandemic year, especially for prime-age and younger individuals. The share of excess fatalities involving COVID-19 decreased modestly over time, with little change in its role as an underlying versus contributing cause of death.

Marijuana legalization and opioid deaths.

Many states have legalized marijuana over the last two decades, initially for medical purposes and more recently for recreational consumption. Despite prior research, it remains unclear how these policies are related to rates of opioid-involved overdose deaths, which have trended rapidly upwards over time. We examine this question in two ways. First, we replicate and extend previous investigations to show that the prior empirical results are frequently fragile to the choice of specifications and time periods, and probably provide an overly optimistic assessment of the effects of marijuana legalization on opioid deaths. Second, we present new estimates suggesting that legal medical marijuana, particularly when available through retail dispensaries, is associated with higher opioid mortality. The results for recreational marijuana, while less reliable, also indicate that retail sales may be correlated with greater death rates relative to the counterfactual of no legal cannabis. A likely mechanism for these effects is the emergence of illicit fentanyl, which has increased the riskiness of even small positive effects of cannabis legalization on the consumption of opioids.

The Impacts of Paid Family and Medical Leave on Worker Health, Family Well-Being, and Employer Outcomes.

This article reviews the evidence on the impacts of paid family and medical leave (PFML) policies on workers' health, family well-being, and employer outcomes. While an extensive body of research demonstrates the mostly beneficial effects of PFML taken by new parents on infant, child, and parental health, less is known about its impact on employees who need leave to care for older children, adult family members, or elderly relatives. The evidence on employers is similarly limited but indicates that PFML does not impose major burdens on them. Taken together, the evidence suggests that PFML policies are likely to have important short- and long-term benefits for population health, without generating large costs for employers. At thesame time, further research is needed to understand the effects of different policy parameters (e.g., wage replacement rate and leave duration) and of other types of leave beyond parental leave.

Pandemic And Recession Effects On Mortality In The US During The First Year Of COVID-19.

There were almost 700,000 excess deaths in the US from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2021, resulting from two often counterbalancing mechanisms: those predicted by changes in unemployment rates occurring during this period, referred to here as the "recession effect," and those predicted by the "pandemic effect," which reflects direct consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19, accompanying impacts on health and medical care, and other changes in mortality not caused by greater joblessness. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, this study decomposed total mortality in this period into pandemic and recession effects, with additional estimates by sex, race and ethnicity, age, and fourteen causes. Although the pandemic effect increased many types of mortality, the recession effect reduced most types of mortality. Without the recession effect, there would have been nearly 40,000 more deaths than actually occurred. However, there were disparate impacts, particularly for external causes. Vehicular and alcohol-related fatalities and homicides rose because of strong pandemic effects. In contrast, the recession effect accounted for a greater share of the rise in drug mortality. Offsetting pandemic and recession effects resulted in a decrease in the number of suicides. Understanding these diverse impacts provides useful lessons for policy efforts to mitigate the current and future health pandemics.

Excess deaths in the United States during the first year of COVID-19.

Accurately determining the number of excess deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is hard. The most important challenge is determining the counterfactual count of baseline deaths that would have occurred in its absence. Flexible estimation methods were used here to provide this baseline number and plausibility of the resulting estimates was evaluated by examining how changes between baseline and actual prior year deaths compared to historical year-over-year changes during the previous decade. Similar comparisons were used to examine the reasonableness of excess death estimates obtained in prior research. Total, group-specific and cause-specific excess deaths in the U.S. from March 2020 through February 2021 were calculated using publicly available data covering all deaths from March 2009 through December 2020 and provisional data for January 2021 and February 2021. The estimates indicate that there were 649,411 (95% CI: 600,133 to 698,689) excess deaths in the U.S. from 3/20-2/21, a 23% (95% CI: 21%-25%) increase over baseline, with 82.9% (95% CI: 77.0% - 89.7%) of these attributed directly to COVID-19. There were substantial differences across population groups and causes in the ratio of actual-to-baseline deaths, and in the contribution of COVID-19 to excess mortality. Prior research has probably often underestimated baseline mortality and so overstated both excess deaths and the percentage of them attributed to non-COVID-19 causes.

Estimated Prevalence of and Factors Associated With Clinically Significant Anxiety and Depression Among US Adults During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: Claims of dramatic increases in clinically significant anxiety and depression early in the COVID-19 pandemic came from online surveys with extremely low or unreported response rates. Objective: To examine trend data in a calibrated screening for clinically significant anxiety and depression among adults in the only US government benchmark probability trend survey not disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: This survey study used the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a monthly state-based trend survey conducted over the telephone. Participants were adult respondents in the 50 US states and District of Columbia who were surveyed March to December 2020 compared with the same months in 2017 to 2019. Exposures: Monthly state COVID-19 death rates. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated 30-day prevalence of clinically significant anxiety and depression based on responses to a single BRFSS item calibrated to a score of 6 or greater on the 4-item Patient Health Questionnaire (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.84). All percentages are weighted based on BRFSS calibration weights. Results: Overall, there were 1 429 354 respondents, with 1 093 663 in 2017 to 2019 (600 416 [51.1%] women; 87 153 [11.8%] non-Hispanic Black; 826 334 [61.5%] non-Hispanic White; 411 254 [27.8%] with college education; and 543 619 [56.8] employed) and 335 691 in 2020 (182 351 [51.3%] women; 25 517 [11.7%] non-Hispanic Black; 250 333 [60.5%] non-Hispanic White; 130 642 [29.3%] with college education; and 168 921 [54.9%] employed). Median within-state response rates were 45.9% to 49.4% in 2017 to 2019 and 47.9% in 2020. Estimated 30-day prevalence of clinically significant anxiety and depression was 0.4 (95% CI, 0.0 to 0.7) percentage points higher in March to December 2020 (12.4%) than March to December 2017 to 2019 (12.1%). This estimated increase was limited, however, to students (2.4 [95% CI, 0.8 to 3.9] percentage points) and the employed (0.9 [95% CI, 0.5 to 1.4] percentage points). Estimated prevalence decreased among the short-term unemployed (-1.8 [95% CI, -3.1 to -0.5] percentage points) and those unable to work (-4.2 [95% CI, -5.3 to -3.2] percentage points), but did not change significantly among the long-term unemployed (-2.1 [95% CI, -4.5 to 0.5] percentage points), homemakers (0.8 [95% CI, -0.3 to 1.9] percentage points), or the retired (0.1 [95% CI, -0.6 to 0.8] percentage points). The increase in anxiety and depression prevalence among employed people was positively associated with the state-month COVID-19 death rate (1.8 [95% CI, 1.2 to 2.5] percentage points when high and 0.0 [95% CI, -0.7 to 0.6] percentage points when low) and was elevated among women compared with men (2.0 [95% CI, 1.4 to 2.5] percentage points vs 0.2 [95% CI, -0.1 to 0.6] percentage points), Non-Hispanic White individuals compared with Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black individuals (1.3 [95% CI, 0.6 to 1.9] percentage points vs 1.1 [95% CI, -0.2 to 2.5] percentage points and 0.7 [95% CI, -0.1 to 1.5] percentage points), and those with college educations compared with less than high school educations (2.5 [95% CI, 1.9 to 3.1] percentage points vs -0.6 [95% CI, -2.7 to 1.4] percentage points). Conclusions and Relevance: In this survey study, clinically significant US adult anxiety and depression increased less during 2020 than suggested by online surveys. However, this modest aggregate increase could mask more substantial increases in key population segments (eg, first responders) and might have become larger in 2021 and 2022.

Has mortality risen disproportionately for the least educated?

We examine whether the least educated population groups experienced the worst mortality trends at the beginning of the 21st century by measuring changes in mortality across education quartiles. We document sharply differing gender patterns. Among women, mortality trends improved fairly monotonically with education. Conversely, male trends for the lowest three education quartiles were often similar. For both sexes, the gap in mortality between the top 25 percent and the bottom 75 percent is growing. However, there are many groups for whom these patterns are reversed - with better experiences for the less educated - or where the differences are statistically indistinguishable.

Federal Opioid Grant Funding Favors Least Populous States, Not States With Greatest Need.

The federal government provides grants to states to assist with their efforts to ameliorate the opioid epidemic. However, it is not currently understood how well these funds are targeted toward the areas with the greatest need. To address this, we constructed a database of federal grants addressing opioid and other substance use problems and investigated how closely grant dollars awarded in fiscal years 2017 and 2018 aligned with the severity of state opioid problems. Using our preferred measure, roughly one-sixth of funds, totaling $1.5 billion, would need to have been reallocated to provide equal opioid severity-adjusted funding across states; less populous states were typically the most generously funded. Grant targeting could be improved with more rigorous efforts to account for geographic differences in the severity of opioid problems. We identify problems in some frequently used targeting benchmarks, where state prevalence rates are measured with low precision.

California's paid family leave law improves maternal psychological health.

OBJECTIVE: To study the effect of California's first in the nation paid family leave policy on maternal postpartum psychological distress for women overall and for disadvantaged groups. METHODS: We use restricted data from 11 waves of the National Health Interview Survey, from 2000 to 2010, to examine mothers with children under the age of 12 months (n = 7379). Outcomes included three measures obtained from the six-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale: an aggregated score and thresholds for mild and moderate psychological distress. For inference, we used synthetic control models, comparing mothers with infants in California to mothers with infants in the control group, pre-law and post-law. RESULTS: Access to paid family leave was associated with a 0.636-point decrease (95% CI = -1.202, -0.070) in postpartum psychological distress symptoms among mothers with infants, representing a 27.6% decrease from the pre-treatment mean. It was also associated with a 9.1 percentage point reduction (95% CI = -17.8, -0.4) in mild postpartum distress, a 38.4% reduction from the pre-treatment mean. Populations that typically lack access to paid family leave, particularly single and younger mothers, may have seen even larger effects. CONCLUSIONS: Paid family leave was associated with improved mental health for California mothers, suggesting that expansions of state or federal paid family leave policies have the potential to improve maternal postpartum health.

The effect of the economic collapse in Iceland on the probability of cardiovascular events.

After several years of a booming economy in Iceland, the economic bubble burst in 2008 and affected most Icelanders in one way or another. We explore whether the economic collapse in 2008 and subsequent economic crisis affected the probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) events, independent of regular cyclical effects that can be attributed to typical economic conditions. Moreover, we conduct a mediation analysis to study the potential mechanisms through which the relationship between the economic collapse and cardiovascular health travels. We estimate linear probability models using administrative data on IHD events, earnings and balance-sheet status, as well as unemployment for all Icelanders aged 16 and older in 2000-2014. We find that the sharp change in economic conditions in 2008 increased the probability of cardiovascular events in both males and females in the long term. In absolute terms, these effects were small in magnitude but often statistically significant, amounting to approximately 13-16 extra cases of IHD events in each of the two years following the collapse for males and 3-5 addition cases for females. Moreover, they contrast with the finding that general business-cycle fluctuations operated in the opposite direction. Several potential mediators were correlated with the probability of IHD events, but their inclusion had little impact on the estimated effects of the economic crisis. A statistically significant business-cycle effect is found for both genders indicating that in general, harder economic times are beneficial for heart health. Thus, the general business cycle and the economic collapse in 2008 and subsequent crisis can be thought of as separate phenomena with differing effects on IHD.

Opioid Deaths and Local Healthcare Intensity: A Longitudinal Analysis of the U.S. Population, 2003-2014.

INTRODUCTION: This study examines the association between local healthcare intensity and drug death rates. METHODS: County-level drug death rates were computed for 2003-2014 using vital statistics data adjusted for incomplete reporting of drug involvement. A county-level healthcare intensity index was constructed using Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care data. Linear regression and dose-response models were estimated for all residents and for population subgroups to analyze the relationship between healthcare intensity and drug death rates, as well as for 7 indicators of healthcare quality. Data collection and analysis were conducted in 2018 and 2019. RESULTS: Linear estimates indicated a positive correlation between healthcare intensity and opioid-involved drug death rates. Dose-response models revealed that the association was especially pronounced for the 2 highest healthcare intensity quintiles. Moving from the lowest to the highest healthcare intensity quintile was associated with a 2.14 (95% CI=1.56, 2.72) per 100,000 rise in opioid-involved drug death rates and a 25.1% (95% CI=18.3%, 31.9%) increase from the base rate of 8.54 per 100,000. Corresponding associations were larger in absolute terms for individuals who were male, white, aged 20-44 years, and not college educated than for their counterparts, but similar in percentages, except for 2 minority racial groups and seniors. Non-opioid drug death rates were unrelated to healthcare intensity. High healthcare intensity was associated with worse healthcare quality for 6 of 7 indicators. CONCLUSIONS: In the U.S., between 2003 and 2014, high medical care intensity was associated with elevated opioid death rates and lower healthcare quality.

Nonopioid Overdose Death Rates Rose Almost As Fast As Those Involving Opioids, 1999-2016.

The number of Americans dying from drug overdoses has risen rapidly, but the contribution of nonopioid drugs to this growth is not well understood. Using vital statistics data from the universe of deaths among US residents in the period 1999-2016, I calculated levels of and increases in overall nonopioid fatal overdose rates and those for subgroups stratified by manner of death, sex, race/ethnicity, and age. Mortality rates were also calculated separately for sedatives, stimulants, antidepressants, and cocaine. Recently developed methods were used to correct for the incomplete reporting of drug involvement on death certificates. From 1999 to 2016 the number of nonopioid drug deaths rose 274 percent, and deaths per 100,000 population rose by 223 percent. Over the same period, opioid-involved fatality counts and rates grew by 371 percent and 307 percent, respectively. Fatal overdose rates involving stimulants increased more than tenfold, with slower growth but higher rates for deaths involving sedatives and cocaine. Midlife non-Hispanic whites generally experienced the highest levels and rise in nonopioid death rates, but cocaine fatality rates were particularly common among nonwhite or Hispanic males ages 40-59. Policies designed to curb the opioid epidemic are probably helpful in reducing nonopioid deaths, but targeted interventions may also be needed.

Drivers of the fatal drug epidemic.

This study examines the contributions of the medium-run evolution of local economies and of changes in the "drug environment' in explaining county-level changes in drug and related mortality rates from 1999 to 2015. A primary finding is that drug mortality rates did increase more in counties experiencing relative economic decline than in those with more robust growth, but that the relationship is weak and mostly accounted for by confounding factors. In the preferred estimates, less than one-tenth of the rise in drug and opioid-involved fatality rates is explained and the contribution is even smaller, quite possibly zero, when allowing for plausible selection on unobservables. Conversely, the risk of drug deaths varies systematically over time across population subgroups in ways that are consistent with an important role for the public health environment related to the availability and cost of drugs. In particular, the relative risk and share of drug mortality increased rapidly for males and younger adults, compared to their counterparts, when the primary driver of the fatal drug epidemic transitioned from prescription to illicit opioids. These results suggest that efforts to improve local economies, while desirable for other reasons, are not likely to yield significant reductions in overdose mortality, but with greater potential for interventions directly addressing the drug environment.

Breastfeeding, schooling, and income: Insights from the Indonesian Family Life Survey.

Recent research has highlighted associations of breastfeeding with IQ, schooling, and income, but uncertainty about such links remains. The Indonesian Family Life Survey, representative of 83% of the Indonesian population, provides data on breastfeeding, parents' years of schooling, wealth, and other family characteristics in 1993-1994, as well as schooling and income in 2014-2015 for 5,421 children of those families. Using linear regressions and controlling for village or neighbourhood, as well as propensity score matching, we analysed breastfeeding associations for boys and girls separately, when regularly fed foods/beverages other than breast milk is significantly associated with years of schooling in 2014-2015 for girls, but not for boys, after controlling for the village or neighbourhood of residence in 1993-1994. For girls, ages 1 to 1.9, 2 to 2.9, 3 to 3.9, and >4 months, relative to ages <1 month, are associated with an additional 0.41 to 0.46 years of schooling, with p values of 0.086, 0.071, 0.043, and 0.026, respectively. No comparable estimate for boys attains statistical significance. Using propensity score matching yields similar results. Associations with annual income in 2014-2015 are not statistically significant, either for all children, or for either sex. Our finding suggests that delaying regular feeding of foods/beverages other than breast milk beyond 1 month may help girls' schooling but has no observable association with annual income, perhaps because of lower labour force participation by women. Also, the inclusion of controls for village or neighbourhood of residence reduces confounding.

Drug Mortality and Lost Life Years Among U.S. Midlife Adults, 1999-2015.

INTRODUCTION: Increasing mortality rates among midlife non-Hispanic whites have been identified but are not well understood. METHODS: Vital statistics data were used in 2017 to examine to what extent increases in mortality rates and years of potential life lost among midlife non-Hispanic whites from 1999 to 2015 are correlated with increases in fatal overdoses and specific drug categories. RESULTS: The mortality rate rose by 21.2 per 100,000 people and years of potential life lost by 712,000 years from 1999 to 2015 for non-Hispanic whites aged 22-56 years; 63% of the mortality rate and 76% of the years of potential life lost increase occurred among individuals aged 22-39 years. For males, 92% of the mortality rate and 98% of the years of potential life lost growth was among individuals aged 22-39 years. The increases attributed to drug poisonings were: 26.4 per 100,000 people and 854,000 years, 51% and 64% of which occurred among individuals aged 22-39 years. Illicit opioids without involvement of prescription opioids were involved in mortality rate and years of potential life lost increases of 13.9 (95% CI=13.2, 14.7) per 100,000 people and 489,000 (95% CI=463,000, 515,000) years. For prescription opioids without illicit opioid involvement, the growth was 7.8 (95% CI=7.3, 8.3) per 100,000 people and 230,000 (95% CI=214,000, 246,000) years. Illicit opioids played a key role for individuals aged 22-39 years, especially males. Mortality rate and years of potential life lost declined dramatically for nonwhites or Hispanics aged 22-56 years, with only small increases because of drug deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Growth in fatal overdoses was strongly correlated with increased mortality rate and years of potential life lost for midlife non-Hispanic whites from 1999 to 2015, with a particularly large rise for young adults, especially males, and illicit opioids contributing most to this association.

Corrected US opioid-involved drug poisoning deaths and mortality rates, 1999-2015.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Most prior estimates of opioid-involved drug poisoning mortality counts or rates are understated because the specific drugs leading to death are frequently not identified on death certificates. This analysis provides corrected national estimates of opioid and heroin/synthetic opioid-involved counts and mortality rates, as well as changes over time in them from 1999 to 2015. METHODS: Data on drug poisoning deaths to US residents from 1999 to 2015, obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Multiple Cause of Death (MCOD) files, were used with the drugs involved in fatal overdoses imputed when not identified on the death certificates. RESULTS: The official CDC figure that 33 091 drug deaths involved opioids in 2015 is an undercount, with the actual number being approximately 39 999. Corrected counts and rates of any opioid and heroin/synthetic opioid-involved drug deaths are 20-35% higher in every year than reported figures. The corrections almost always raise the changes estimated to have occurred since 1999, with the largest differences observed in 2011 for any opioids (5677 deaths and 1.7 per 100 000) and in 2015 for heroin/synthetic opioids (3228 deaths and 1.0 per 100 000). However, percentage growth since 1999 is sometimes slower when based on corrected rather than reported fatality data, and with sensitivity to the choice of base years. CONCLUSIONS: Death certificate reports understate the prevalence of and changes over time in opioid and heroin/synthetic opioid-involved drug mortality in the United States. Adjustments imputing the drugs involved for cases where none are identified on the death certificates are likely to provide more accurate estimates.

Paid Family Leave, Fathers' Leave-Taking, and Leave-Sharing in Dual-Earner Households.

Using difference-in-difference and difference-in-difference-in-difference designs, we study California's Paid Family Leave (CA-PFL) program, the first source of government-provided paid parental leave available to fathers in the Unites States. Relative to the pre-treatment mean, fathers of infants in California are 46 percent more likely to be on leave when CA-PFL is available. In households where both parents work, we find suggestive evidence that CA-PFL increases both father-only leave-taking (i.e., father on leave while mother is at work) and joint leave-taking (i.e., both parents on leave at the same time). Effects are larger for fathers of first-born children than for fathers of later-born children.